US–China Relations Over 20 Years

Editor’s Note: At ChinaSource, we seek to help readers understand the broader environment in which the church in China exists. While Lost Decade: The US Pivot to Asia and the Rise of Chinese Power does not address religion or the church directly, it offers valuable insight into the shifting dynamics of US–China relations over the past decade. These dynamics are shaping the geopolitical, economic, and cultural realities that increasingly affect Christian engagement with China.

For those seeking to serve, partner with, or simply understand the church in China, grasping the global forces at play is essential. This book review offers a window into how US foreign policy toward Asia has evolved, how China has responded, and why these developments matter—not only in Washington and Beijing, but for Christians navigating ministry, prayer, and partnership across borders.

Lost Decade: The US Pivot to Asia and the Rise of Chinese Power by Robert D. Blackwill and Richard Fontaine.N. Y. Oxford University Press, 2024, 480 pages. ISBN-10: ‎ 0197677940, ISBN-13: 978-0197677940. Hardcover available from Press and Amazon.

Understanding the “Pivot to Asia”

China’s rise as an economic, political and military superpower has brought increased attention to US–China relations. In the October 2011 issue of Foreign Policy, then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton published an article entitled “America’s Pacific Century” and used the phrase “pivot to Asia” for the first time. Blackwill and Fontaine’s book explores the emergence of this concept of a pivot to Asia, how it has been implemented across various Republican and Democratic administrations, as well as China’s rise and development during this same period.

A National Security Lens

The authors have been involved in ongoing policy discussions in the US and know many of the key US decision-makers.¹ In this book, they speak primarily from a US national security perspective. In the debates about China, these national security concerns have overridden other traditional viewpoints such as economic relations, trade and investment, academic exchanges, and other kinds of people-to-people relations. In addition to public sources, the authors have had discussions with many of the key individuals in the development and implementation of the pivot to Asia and bring a unique perspective to understanding the background and tradeoffs made among the various options.

Relevance for ChinaSource Readers

ChinaSource readers will look in vain for any mention in this book about the church or religious affairs in China. This book focuses on the broader context and environment of the US–China relationship with a particular focus on the security, economic and global relations aspects of this relationship. Still, it is a valuable resource for anyone seeking to understand the history and background of US–China relations and their broader international implications over the past two decades and into the future.

Christians in the US who argue for engagement with China are often dismissed as naive or deceived. This book provides the background to understand the national security issues and prayerfully consider how Christians should respond considering the changing international environment and the vigorous debates ongoing in the US.

Contested Interpretations of the Pivot

The phrase “pivot to Asia” has been a contentious phrase since it was first used. Within China it is generally understood as a policy to specifically contain and restrain China’s growth. Among US friends, allies and partners in other non-Asian parts of the world the pivot to Asia is understood as a pivot from some other places and engenders worry about a diminished US role in their part of the world. Within Asia there are also a variety of concerns about the pivot.

A Historical Look at US Strategy

The authors trace the history of the concept of pivoting to Asia going back into the Clinton and Bush administrations. There is a chapter that delves into the ideological debates that shaped US policy, contrasting the engagement school of thought, which hoped China would change its behavior through deeper integration into global systems, with those advocating for a more confrontational approach. Clinton’s belief that trade and engagement would democratize China is highlighted. However, this chapter shows how engagement failed to check China’s growing ambitions, laying the groundwork for the more explicit pivot under Obama.

The Trump Administration’s Competitive Turn

A subsequent chapter focuses on the Trump administration’s approach to the pivot, which shifted from a policy of engagement to one of competition with China. Trump’s focus on trade, especially his antagonism toward trade deficits, redefined the US–China relationship, casting economic interactions in zero-sum terms. Trump’s more confrontational stance toward China, especially through his trade policies, is explored in-depth, showcasing not only how it represented a shift toward overt competition, but also how it lacked a coherent strategic vision. The chapter also explores how Trump’s policies on trade and international institutions like the WTO further alienated China, accelerating the competitive dynamic between the two nations. The authors note that Trump’s pivot to Asia marked a definitive shift toward seeing China as a strategic rival rather than a potential partner.

Biden’s Policy: Continuity and Constraints

The chapter on the Biden policy towards Asia and China notes that its policy on Asia—particularly on China—was more continuity than change from the Trump era. Biden’s focus on strengthening alliances and confronting China’s economic practices reflected a growing bipartisan consensus that China represented the US’s most significant strategic challenge. However, Biden’s administration was also forced to deal with an eroded US position in Asia, thanks to the missed opportunities of previous administrations. Notably, the Biden administration framed US–China relations as a broader ideological contest between democracy and autocracy.

European Responses and Complexities

The US pivot to Asia has profound implications for Europe, which remains concerned about its security and economic interests amid a potential US reorientation away from the Atlantic. This chapter details how European leaders, especially after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, began to link the threats posed by Russia and China. However, Europe’s deep economic ties with China complicate its response, as European leaders remain hesitant to fully align with Washington’s more confrontational approach.

China’s Consolidation of Power

Another chapter shows how China continued to consolidate its power throughout the 2010s, even as the US was distracted by other global crises. The failure of the Trans-Pacific Partnership² (TPP) and the broader absence of a coherent US economic strategy in Asia created a vacuum that China filled with initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The authors argue that the US’s relative decline in the region was less a result of Chinese brilliance and more a consequence of Washington’s inability to follow through on its strategic commitments.

The Economic Front: From Offense to Defense

The book also highlights the economic dimension of the pivot, with a particular focus on the US’s shift from offensive economic policies like the TPP to more defensive measures, including tariffs and export controls. The authors emphasize that economic power remains central to the competition with China, but US efforts to disengage from China have thus far been reactive rather than strategic.

Rivalry and the Limits of Cooperation

The book concludes by discussing how global issues such as climate change and public health require US–China cooperation despite their broader competition. The authors suggest that while areas of collaboration exist, they will be increasingly difficult to maintain as the two nations become more deeply enmeshed in rivalry. The book suggests that while the pivot was strategically sound, it was never sufficiently resourced or executed, and the US failed to keep pace with China’s expanding power. While engagement with China should continue, the authors highlight the impossibility of a grand bargain between the two powers given their divergent values and national goals.

Clarity, Accessibility, and Policy Insight

One of the book’s key strengths is its clarity and accessibility. Blackwill and Fontaine take complex geopolitical and economic concepts and break them down in a way that is digestible for both policy experts and general readers alike. The writing is sharp and the narrative is compelling, filled with real-world examples and quotes from key policymakers that add texture to their arguments. For instance, the authors quote Kurt Campbell, a key architect of the Pivot, who describes the immense challenge of trying to redirect US resources to Asia while being bogged down in the Middle East. This gives readers a behind-the-scenes look at the inner workings of US foreign policy.

Conclusion: A Strategic Vision Unfulfilled

The “Pivot to Asia” was initially seen as a cornerstone of US strategy to manage China’s growing influence in the Asia-Pacific. However, as the authors painstakingly show, this strategy faltered, leaving America weaker in Asia than it was a decade ago, while China has become more assertive and powerful than ever before. As we continue to see US–China relations shape global affairs—from trade wars to technological competition and military posturing—this book provides an essential historical context that explains how we got here and what might lie ahead. The book shows that the rivalry between the US and China is not just about economic competition or military positioning—it is about two different visions of global governance. The issues raised in this book continue to be debated and discussed in Washington, Beijing and among ordinary citizens of both countries.

In conclusion, Lost Decade makes a strong case for why the US must focus on Asia, now more than ever, to avoid repeating the mistakes of the last decade. For anyone trying to make sense of the complex and rapidly changing dynamics of US–China relations in an unstable world, this book is an invaluable resource. Blackwill and Fontaine’s analysis makes it clear that the US–China rivalry will shape global politics for decades to come. Understanding how the US pivot to Asia faltered—and why—is crucial for anyone interested in international relations, foreign policy, or global security. The authors don’t just dwell on the past; they offer a roadmap for how the US can regain its footing in Asia and counterbalance China’s growing power. Whether you are a policymaker, a scholar, or a general reader, this book provides a comprehensive and compelling guide to understanding the greatest geopolitical challenges of our time.

Our thanks to Oxford University Press for providing a copy of Lost Decade: The US Pivot to Asia and the Rise of Chinese Power by Robert D. Blackwill and Richard Fontaine for this review.

1. To hear more about the authors and the background of the book, see Jude Blanchette, interview with Robert D. Blackwill and Richard Fontaine, “Debating America’s ‘Pivot’ to Asia,” The Asia Chessboard, produced by CSIS, published August 6, 2024, accessed March 8, 2025, https://open.spotify.com/episode/0jIzZcNMWMG8cr9WhUVb30.
2. See “Trans-Pacific Partnership,” Wikipedia, accessed March 8, 2025, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans-Pacific_Partnership.

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